Northlake “Overlay” Crime Prompts Overtime Officer Discussion/Gwinnett CID Model Lowers Crime Figures

October 28, 2008

On August 27 and October 13, crime meetings in “Northlake” were hosted by the DeKalb Chamber of Commerce at the newly refurbished Doubletree Hotel. The October meeting was advertised as a discussion for paying for added police protection.

The initial Doubletree meeting was convened abruptly after highly publicized “smash and grabs” in Northlake Mall and concern by property managers about panhandlers confronting hotel guests and shoppers. Police data also shows a 28% increase in area pedestrian robberies and 14 % in car break-ins in year-over-year data, incidents that inflame e-mail traffic among local neighborhood shoppers.
Twenty-one year neighborhood resident Mary Kay Woodworth attended the August crime meeting. Woodworth lives in a neighborhood close to the Northlake Overlay. Woodworth wrote in an e-mail, "My husband and I are concerned about the general decline in the area. We have recently purchased a new home…and feel that the perception (and reality) of crime in this community is of real damage to property values.” Woodworth added she is however encouraged by the “influx of new and renovated businesses”.

One of those new businesses is the Doubletree Hotel, which represents a large investment upgrade of the former Radisson at I-285. John LaBruzzo, the Doubletree’s Acting General Manager, has been caught off-guard by crime in the lagging East DeKalb commercial center, saying that he was not prepared for and is “disappointed” in the crime levels he has seen since opening less than six months ago.

LaBruzzo elaborated, “The recent spate of crime in the Northlake area only prompted (those) that came to the safety meeting to come together to avert the possibility of a negative perception maturing into a negative reality.”

DeKalb Police Department and Simon Properties, Inc. representatives were quick to relate an increase in reported incidents to a deteriorating economy, saying the entire region has the same issue. In an August 28 written statement, Simon stated, “…the incidents that have recently occurred at Northlake Mall are not isolated to the DeKalb county community, rather part of a larger crime ring that has taken place at 11 different locations throughout the metro-Atlanta area.”

Actually, crime statistics for the Atlanta region publicized by daily newspapers would indicate that increases in the Northlake Overlay are far lower than those in other deteriorating suburban counties—and the rest of DeKalb (see “Favorable” below).

According to police at the most recent October business meeting, department personnel are now inside the mall and Simon said, “an additional team of mobile security officers patrolling the property…has also been added to the current security program.” Apparently, security had been improved over 2007 also. According to data acquired by GoDeKalb.com from a police representative, there were only five reported incidents at the mall in the 12 months prior to September, 2008, extraordinarily fewer than 42 (mostly auto entries) in the 12 months previous. To put that in perspective, there were more than 30 incidents combined at the three apartment complexes in the overlay district in each of those time periods years, according to the same data.

Many business managers, like Robert Pillar at Hertz Car Rental and adjacent property owner Amin Haji on Northlake Parkway have yet to attend a crime meeting, but expressed interest when reached by GoDeKalb.com. Pillar says he has had an occasional car theft and police have coordinated stake-outs with him. Haji is close to opening a banquet hall between Hertz and DeKalb Tire. Although no apartment company representatives attended the first meeting, the second meeting attracted managers from gated communities owned by Worthing Southeast (The Heights and nearby Five Oaks) and Venterra Realty of Ontario, Canada (purchased Camelot and renamed “Providence”).

Thirty-seven (37) of approximately 500 reports between September 2007 and September 2008 were from one parking lot—that of the LA Fitness center on Crescent Center Parkway. The LA Fitness incidents were all “entering an auto", crimes that police representatives at both Doubletree meetings say are easily prevented. Police say most such vehicle break-ins are a result of carelessness by car owners, failing to pay attention to items left in plain site. The meetings resulted in tips to business managers for assisting the police with preventative practices.

DeKalb Police Captain Pat White presented a possible model for Northlake property owners to band together and pay for off-duty police. White discussed the program being operated by the Stone Mountain Industrial Park Association (SMIPA) in the management office of the business area. SMIPA’s off-duty coverage has been in place since 1992 and employs five rotating off-duty officers, one each night, the length of shifts being purposely varied. The association spent $95,000 between last October and this September, according to Patillo Construction Company Human Resource Director Jill Golod, who acts as the SMIPA manager. Member dues are $85 per year for each business owner and $15 for a business’ additional participants. Golod says she has no statistics, but says the longevity of the program bears out its success and popularity.


Taking Aim at “Extended Stays”

A few business members at this month’s meeting, including the Doubletree’s LaBruzzo, were concerned about some area hotel properties not being maintained and attracting a “criminal element”. Insurance executive Ray Williams, once a DeKalb Chamber of Commerce board member and Leadership DeKalb graduate, asked an attending representative of the Convention and Visitors Bureau (DCVB) what could be done about “extended stay” hotels, and got a garbled response about DeKalb not having many such hotels.

“Extended Stay” is actually a legitimate market-rate industry segment that caters to executive travel. However, the “extended stay” label is increasingly becoming attributed to industry a growing phenomenon of former “motels” serving transient low-income residents faced with difficult economic conditions—also sometime called “weekly rate” hotels. For instance, when GoDeKalb.com asked Gwinnett Village Community Improvement District (GVCID) Executive Director Chuck Warbington about crime in the CID, he said that weekly-rate hotel occupancy boomed with the Hurricane Katrina exodus.

The Northlake Inn, formerly a Ramada Inn and offering very low weekly rates, had only six (6) reported incidents in the past year, but Northlake Parkway businesses within a stones throw of the deteriorated hotel like the Stake and Ale restaurant have had dozens. Northlake Community Alliance (NCA) Chairman Tom Ulbricht told the October audience that the Inn’s owner has a redevelopment permit currently working its way through DeKalb’s permitting process—the property to become a home for the elderly.

This week, at the North Briarcliff Civic Association (formerly “Hawthorne”) annual meeting, DeKalb Police code enforcement officer said he had that same day conducted an inspection of the Shallowford Lodge in I-85 area “sweep”. The officer said he issued a citation for “a ton of violations”, equating the I-85 initiative to a similar effort on Glenwood Road, south of Memorial Drive.


Gwinnett CID Size Like Northlake "Area"- Crime Down With Extra Hires

GVCID’s Warbington makes no bones about the source of the crime in his several “hot spots.” Warbington flatly confides, “Crime in our commercial hot spots is directly related to extended-stay hotels, budget hotels now catering to transients. They (the deteriorated properties) are either producing crime or producing the atmosphere for it to happen”, Warbington told GoDeKalb.com

Extra policing was one of the primary reasons the GVCID was organized, says the self-taxing district’s head man.

“What’s interesting is the economy’s worse, but crime has been reduced (in the district). Warbington provided GoDeKalb.com with police department data tallied specifically for the CID area for the first half of 2008 showing 226 incidents compared with 317 incidents in the same six months of 2007—a reduction of 30 percent. GVCID 2007 figures had been nearly identical to the “Northlake” areas near Shallowford Road and Chamblee-Tucker (police sub-area 180) in 2007 before the CID’s extra effort.

The CID covers 12 square miles and has over 1,000 member-business properties in commercial/industrial areas along I-85 and three corridors that intersect the interstate—Pleasantdale Road, Jimmy Carter Boulevard, Indian Trail and Beaver Ruin Roads, The CID, which also extends into the city of Norcross, allocated $350,000 of a $1.75 million 2008 budget for the officers and spent “in the $250,000 range through September.


Relatively Favorable Figures in the “District”?

A look at several sources of data appears favorable for the Northlake Overlay District, when juxtaposed with other areas in DeKalb. The actual figure of nine pedestrian robberies through September, 2008 appears low compared to over 900 in DeKalb for only six months in 2008. Also, according to a police report provided to a developer with interests in Northlake, the numbers for the Overlay have been comparable to Perimeter Center in 2008, an area that enjoys paid off-duty police coverage in its Community Improvement District.

Other “Northlake” commercial areas such as I-85’s Shallowford and Chamblee-Tucker corridors had more than ten times the attacks on pedestrians than the Northlake Overlay.

The “Northlake” area is loosely bounded by Toco Hills in the south, I-85 to the North and Northlake Parkway/Lawrenceville Highway in the east—essentially police sub-precincts 230, 180 and 240 respectively. Single-family residential neighborhoods make up most of these areas, but bear little of the area’s reported crime. Only 17 percent of police incidents in area 240 were on neighborhood streets.

More than 60 percent of all “residential” crime is in commercial area apartment complexes or along apartment corridors. There were 11 “residential burglaries” in the Northlake overlay zone in the 2008 count—almost an insignificant number as compared with the I-85 commercial areas. Year-over-year starting in September, 2007 showed double that number at the three complexes, still almost an insignificant number as compared to the I-85 commercial zones. Two of three apartment complexes in the overlay area are gated.

About the author:
Tom Doolittle is a 15-year Northlake area resident and news source since 2002. Doolittle chartered Northlake Community Alliance, Inc. and conducted the Northlake Business Forum between 2001 and 2003.


http://godekalb.com/archives/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9031&Itemid=2873

Northlake ITP and OTP Stable During Recession (2006-08)

Pictured: Second story additions have helped maintain surrounding home values during the national downturn.


This article can also be found at:
http://www.godekalb.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=232:northlake-itp-and-otp-real-estate-stable-amidst-recession&catid=43:dekalb&Itemid=33

http://dekalbschoolwatch.blogspot.com/2009/03/micro-markets-matter-northlake-real.html

http://www.hendersonroad.com/news_&_events.htm


March 5, 2009


Northlake area property prices either never “bubbled” or the bubble hasn't burst yet. Data for the Lakeside High School zone from 2006 through the end of 2008 indicate that housing prices in Northlake have not suffered Metro Atlanta's property value losses. The average resale prices in the entire Lakeside High School zone increased by .24% from 2006. Northlake's resale price changes differ from inside to outside the Perimeter, as home values tend to do. Northlake ITP values, almost all in the Lakeside zone, have actually increased during the "down-turn" while Lakeside's OTP resales lost a mere 3.2% for traditional “first suburb” housing stock (single-family homes built before 1980).

Between 2006 and 2008, Atlanta Metro area resale prices of all homes dropped by more than 17 percent according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, quoting industry sources. During the same time period, single-family detached home resale prices fell by 15.1 percent, according to figures supplied by Marietta-based SmartNumbers.

The Northlake numbers were compiled from First Multiple Listing Service (FMLS) data provided by Judy Brooks of Re/Max Brookhaven. Brooks has worked almost exclusively in the 30345 zip code for 23 years and is the current president of the Dresden East Civic Association (DECA). Referring to neighborhoods with steady performance Brooks said, “I find stability comforting (as an agent and homeowner), it helps buyers and sellers at the same time.”

Sally English, an Associate Broker and longtime Northlake area sales leader with ReMax Executives on Northlake Parkway, credits nearby employment centers for the steady housing market. The locally born Henderson High School and Vanderbilt University graduate said "Emory University, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Atlanta VA Medical Center and Clifton Corridor are stable source of employment for many residents in the Lakeside High School district. These employers have not experienced the volatility of (private sector) employers."


“First Suburb”, pre-1980 homes represent 90% of Lakeside zone recession re-sales
Average prices of the few detached homes built after 1980 in the 30345 zip code increased by about 5 percent. However, only 75 units sold from 2006 through 2008. Those sales prices averaged $783,604, whereas the “first suburb” units in 30345 averaged about $375,000 and dominate the resale market.


Tucker OTP Completes Northlake Picture
About half of Tucker’s 30084 zip code and Tucker High School zone is arguably in the Northlake commercial core's influence area. In fact, the 30345 and 30084 zip codes curiously occupy opposite sides of Lavista Road at Northlake Mall. An analysis of Tucker’s residential prices (largely OTP), will follow in another report. However, a quick look at the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s (AJC) median resale data for all homes, although home values are well below ITP values, Tucker (30084) property maintained value at a rate within 1 percent of zip code 30345 between 2006 and 2007. AJC data is not available for 2008.

In fact, the property value disparity between Northlake's ITP and OTP areas bodes well for a new market pulse. ReMax's English elaborated, "Many of the homes in Tucker have values attractive to a first time buyer. This, combined with convenient commuter access to in town employment centers will provide a lot of opportunity for first time home buyers looking to take advantage of the new $8,000 tax credit."


Sales of New and Post-1980 Built Homes
Although new, larger home construction is a subject of fascination (so-called “McMansions”, they are factually not much a part of the Northlake area real estate market. Only 74 new single-family homes (13.8% of all sales) in the Lakeside portion of 30345 were sold from 2006 to 2008, prices ranging from $605,000 to $1,640,000. Only 10 homes built in 2008 were sold in 2008 in Lakeside/30345.


Lakeside Realtors Hurt By Slowing Activity
The lack of a price bubble in Northlake has not been without cost to area realtors, hurt by significantly lower and slower sales activity in the area. Resale volume decreased from 331 to 218 (34%) between 2006 and 2008, for pre-1980 homes. Just as significantly to realtor income, time on the market increased from 50 to 86 days. Van Johnson of Re/Max Executives on Northlake Parkway and immediate past president of the Georgia Association of Realtors expressed quite candidly that the Northlake area has not escaped the lower sales volume and industry retraction felt nationally. “Consolidation is hitting everywhere”, Johnson said, “we’ve gone from 200 to 64 agents and Atlanta is down to 600 from 1,000.” The local broker and Northlake Community Alliance Trustee said the state agents association members have decreased from 48,000 to 30,000 in the past two years. “A lot of 1 and 2-person firms will probably fold” Johnson explained.


Foreclosures Less An Issue Here
John Mangham, a Lakeside High School alumnus and foreclosure investor with the firm Epicity, said, “the stable environment and the hidden gem that is the eastern side of the northeast I-85 corridor is a very comfortable place to own a home.” Mangham, a regular guest with real estate investment television host John Adams researched the 30345 zip code, and reported, “in 2008, (there was) only one sale per month (equivalent to 6.8% of sales) from foreclosures.” The average for all DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb and Gwinnett, in 2008 was 36.1% of sales, according to Mangham.

Mangham also said that homes valued from $300,000 to $700,000 have not been hit nearly as hard by foreclosures as other value ranges. About 51% of Lakeside re-sales were above $300,000 in 2008 (79% at $250,000 or above, only 7% below $200,000).

The authorTom Doolittle, is a 15-year Northlake area resident , was a Charter Trustee for Northlake Community Alliance, Inc. (NCA), founded and facilitated the Northlake Business Forum (NBF), wrote "Norlthlake Romance" for Community Review News and contributes to GoDeKalb.com and local websites.

NCA, Streetscape “Attract” in 2009, Lavista Traffic Timing a “Go”

June 30, 2009

Slow commercial property transactions near Northlake Mall reflect national trends, but community leaders recently pointed to some new business activity and public interest in street appeal near the 1970’s era “inner-ring” business area.

On June 18, a crowd of about 150 responded to a well advertised 9th Northlake Community Alliance (NCA) annual meeting at the nine-month old Doubletree Hotel (owned by Legacy Management Group, Inc.). The meeting was upbeat, being the first since the Lavista Road streetscape improvements were completed last summer. NCA Chairman Tom Ulbricht of the Winding Woods area, a former land planner with DeKalb and Fulton Counties, conducted a reelection of several trustee positions that were “turning over” and made a wide range of announcements (below).


NCA as Community Liaison
Ulbricht said that the 501-c-3 volunteer organization is committed to increased outreach efforts into the various communities around the mall. He also made an appeal for financial contributions to help with public information initiatives, including replacing the familiar green and white meeting announcement signs that are stolen regularly. Based on an informal count, this year’s annual meeting at the Doubletree Hotel was attended by at least three times the number of people as last year at Briarlake Baptist Church. Interest in and awareness of the group from local residents has picked up since the completion of the street improvements.

The nonprofit community group also seems to be the “go to” agency for development inquiries about the commercial district around the mall. NCA Trustee meeting guests in the past year include an Emory University official to discuss the medical school’s newest hospital here and representatives and JLB Partners, a firm that is building apartments next to Northlake Mall. NCA has consistently emphasized that the group takes no position on individual property zoning decisions.

NCA’s Ulbricht says he is aware of pending projects including: an assisted care facility waiting for financing and county permitting, to replace the publicly maligned Northlake Inn and the Candlewood Suites Hotel, both on Northlake Parkway east of I-285. Ulbricht also stated that a two-story dental office has been proposed across from Briarlake Baptist Church. During the evening meeting, Ulbricht generalized that other large scale redevelopment in the area is being held up by economic conditions.

Other development on hold: the Isakson-Barnhart company, owner of the locally familiar “Best Buy” Center, presented a redevelopment plan, pending the purchase of the now-closed Siemens Electronics site to the District 2 community council last year. The retail/housing company says the property purchase is on hold due to national financial conditions.

The Atlanta Journal and Constitution reported that “Northlake/I-85” is the retail submarket with the lowest property vacancy rate in the Atlanta region.


Traffic Timing for “Lavista Grid” will bid in July
Anyone who travels along Lavista Road near I-285 knows what its like to sit at traffic lights with no crossing traffic anywhere in sight. Unfortunate stranded drivers also grit their teeth while inching from one stop light to another attempting to cross the 1969-christened interstate highway. If all goes as planned, we may soon see congestion relief from a new traffic “timing” system along Northlake’s primary artery. Solving convoluted intersections runs a close second with mall improvements on the “locals” wish list.

The NCA chairman wrote in an e-mail, “I have been told by county transportation director John Gurbal that the Northlake grid traffic light system overhaul... will be included in the Stimulus Money, 1st round, for advertising probably (this month). It has been signed by the Governor.” Ulbricht added that the project will probably take several months to select a bidder and begin the project.

The county government’s public information officer did not respond to several requests for specific information about “traffic timing” plans in Northlake.

Streetscape News
Ulbricht talked about the Lavista Streetscape and landscaping condition. Sidewalk, lamppost, benches and curb landscaping installation were completed last summer (2008). Ulbricht acknowledged that some trees were lost to the multi-year drought that depleted water supplies in North Georgia. He also mentioned NCA’s numerous volunteers that have mowed and cleaned Lavista Road curbs once per month for many years. According to Ulbricht, the volunteers have been asked to stop their work by the streetscape project manager Post, Buckley, Shue and Jernigan (PBS&J) which hired a subcontractor to maintain the landscaping.

No questions were raised at the annual meeting about Lavista’s current condition. However, one former school board member took issue with the lack of follow-on care, complaining, “the money that was paid to plant the Northlake area and put in the lighting has been misspent if there is no upkeep.” PBS&J did not respond to phone messages about its subcontractor’s status.

An additional $570,000 from Federal and local sources will pay for streetscape expansion along the periphery of Northlake Mall along Briarcliff to Northlake Parkway as far as the funds will allow.

Mall Steps Up, Replacing Crescent Moon
Many residents within two miles of Northlake Mall, opened in 1971, attend NCA meetings asking about plans for changes at the “inner ring” shopping center. Marie Moore, the mall’s fourth manager in six years, was installed just a few weeks before the 2008 NCA annual meeting. Now in place for a year, Moore was able to provide news with some confidence. “Northlake Mall is on Simon Properties radar screen”, the Cobb County resident implied the home office is evaluating the mall and its market and that she personally is “looking for unique and complimentary businesses that add to the property and fulfill the needs of the surrounding community.” Referring to “grassroots” activities that she hopes to make the mall “the center of the community”, Moore mentioned opening meeting spaces and outdoor activities like the movies last year.

The Northlake Mall general manager announced that a “casual diner” will fill the former Crescent Moon space in September. Crescent Moon went out of business about a year ago.

See www.nlake.org for additional information about board meetings, tree-planting and other volunteer efforts.

Downturn Graceful Here

Northlake Resale Data
(Jan 1, 2006-Dec 31, 2008)

Northlake “ITP” (Tucker not studied)


“30345/Lakeside” (52% of all Lakeside High School zone re-sales)

Year Avg Sale Resale Vol
2006 $377,413 158
2007 $375,734 133 0.44% loss year over year
2008 $372,951 96 0.74% loss year over year
Pre-1980 homes Tot 387

Pre-1980 homes (64% of all sales, 84% of all re-sales)


“Total Lakeside” (parts of 30345, 30341, 30340, and 30033)

Year Avg Sale Resale Vol
2006 $362,698 255
2007 $350,751 269 3.3% loss year over year
2008 $333,706 214 4.8% loss year over year
Pre-1980 homes Tot 738

Pre-1980 homes (71% of all sales, 90% of all re-sales)

By Zip Code Pre-1980 homes (2006-2008)

Zip Resale Vol
30345 425
30033 149
30340 101
30341 63
Total 738


Time on Market

2006 50 days
2007 61 days
2008 86 days



Atlanta Metro Averages
All sales: -8.2% (Sept 2007 to Sept 2008)
All re-sales: -17% (2008)
*Source: Atlanta Journal Constitution

Re-Sales: Single-family detached homes only
2006 $227,776
2007 $228,564 +0.4%
2008 $193,349 -15.4%
*Source: Steve Palm, SmartNumbers, Marietta, GA


Tom Doolittle is a 15-year Northlake area resident in the Lakeside school zone, was a Charter Trustee and wrote the 501-c-3 Charitable Organization application to the IRS for Northlake Community Alliance, Inc. (NCA), founded and facilitated the Northlake Business Forum (NBF) from 2002 to 2004 and writes articles about the Northlake area for GoDeKalb.com and local websites.

Northlake--the "brand"

Northlake is the name of a mall, a suburban office retail district and also geographic area of about 20 square miles, in approximately 2.5 miles around Northlake Mall--in DeKalb County, Georgia. Northlake, the business district, sits right on top of the Northeast part of Atlanta's "ring road" (bypass), Interstate 285. I-285 was opened in 1969 while Northlake Mall was under construction and the mall opened in 1971, just a few months after Perimeter Mall.

Unfortunately, "Northlake" is not a community name--at least not adopted easily by nearby residents.

That may be about to change. In conjunction with a revamped DeKalb County Comprehensive Land Use Plan that defines Lavista Road business center as a "Regional Center", it is now zoned for eight to fifteen-story apartment and condominium buildings in a mixed-use setting--via what is called an "zoning overlay", planned with Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) funds. The area shown for residential towers can easily accomodate 4,000 new living units. The mall property is underutilized by "mixed-use" standards as a retail-only site with acres of surface parking area. Thousands of new residential units within a half-mile of the mall may necessitate centrally-located schools and other "town-like" public services.

What will make the "Northlake Core" gain "town" status would also be the development of a commuter rail station on the CSX rail line near Montreal Road or across I-285 at Crescent Center. Prior to WWII (and the industrial parks of the late 1960's), a train station existed at Montreal Road. Past is prologue and we will be using trains more than cars again, particularly from town to town.

A rail station always determines an area's "brand". It will then be convenient for the entire 15 square-mile area around "Northlake Station" to tell people from outside Atlanta and other regions in the Metro area that we live in "Northlake" or near the "Northlake Station".

Think 10-15 years for the "brand" to complete itself.