Northlake ITP and OTP Stable During Recession (2006-08)

Pictured: Second story additions have helped maintain surrounding home values during the national downturn.


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http://dekalbschoolwatch.blogspot.com/2009/03/micro-markets-matter-northlake-real.html

http://www.hendersonroad.com/news_&_events.htm


March 5, 2009


Northlake area property prices either never “bubbled” or the bubble hasn't burst yet. Data for the Lakeside High School zone from 2006 through the end of 2008 indicate that housing prices in Northlake have not suffered Metro Atlanta's property value losses. The average resale prices in the entire Lakeside High School zone increased by .24% from 2006. Northlake's resale price changes differ from inside to outside the Perimeter, as home values tend to do. Northlake ITP values, almost all in the Lakeside zone, have actually increased during the "down-turn" while Lakeside's OTP resales lost a mere 3.2% for traditional “first suburb” housing stock (single-family homes built before 1980).

Between 2006 and 2008, Atlanta Metro area resale prices of all homes dropped by more than 17 percent according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, quoting industry sources. During the same time period, single-family detached home resale prices fell by 15.1 percent, according to figures supplied by Marietta-based SmartNumbers.

The Northlake numbers were compiled from First Multiple Listing Service (FMLS) data provided by Judy Brooks of Re/Max Brookhaven. Brooks has worked almost exclusively in the 30345 zip code for 23 years and is the current president of the Dresden East Civic Association (DECA). Referring to neighborhoods with steady performance Brooks said, “I find stability comforting (as an agent and homeowner), it helps buyers and sellers at the same time.”

Sally English, an Associate Broker and longtime Northlake area sales leader with ReMax Executives on Northlake Parkway, credits nearby employment centers for the steady housing market. The locally born Henderson High School and Vanderbilt University graduate said "Emory University, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Atlanta VA Medical Center and Clifton Corridor are stable source of employment for many residents in the Lakeside High School district. These employers have not experienced the volatility of (private sector) employers."


“First Suburb”, pre-1980 homes represent 90% of Lakeside zone recession re-sales
Average prices of the few detached homes built after 1980 in the 30345 zip code increased by about 5 percent. However, only 75 units sold from 2006 through 2008. Those sales prices averaged $783,604, whereas the “first suburb” units in 30345 averaged about $375,000 and dominate the resale market.


Tucker OTP Completes Northlake Picture
About half of Tucker’s 30084 zip code and Tucker High School zone is arguably in the Northlake commercial core's influence area. In fact, the 30345 and 30084 zip codes curiously occupy opposite sides of Lavista Road at Northlake Mall. An analysis of Tucker’s residential prices (largely OTP), will follow in another report. However, a quick look at the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s (AJC) median resale data for all homes, although home values are well below ITP values, Tucker (30084) property maintained value at a rate within 1 percent of zip code 30345 between 2006 and 2007. AJC data is not available for 2008.

In fact, the property value disparity between Northlake's ITP and OTP areas bodes well for a new market pulse. ReMax's English elaborated, "Many of the homes in Tucker have values attractive to a first time buyer. This, combined with convenient commuter access to in town employment centers will provide a lot of opportunity for first time home buyers looking to take advantage of the new $8,000 tax credit."


Sales of New and Post-1980 Built Homes
Although new, larger home construction is a subject of fascination (so-called “McMansions”, they are factually not much a part of the Northlake area real estate market. Only 74 new single-family homes (13.8% of all sales) in the Lakeside portion of 30345 were sold from 2006 to 2008, prices ranging from $605,000 to $1,640,000. Only 10 homes built in 2008 were sold in 2008 in Lakeside/30345.


Lakeside Realtors Hurt By Slowing Activity
The lack of a price bubble in Northlake has not been without cost to area realtors, hurt by significantly lower and slower sales activity in the area. Resale volume decreased from 331 to 218 (34%) between 2006 and 2008, for pre-1980 homes. Just as significantly to realtor income, time on the market increased from 50 to 86 days. Van Johnson of Re/Max Executives on Northlake Parkway and immediate past president of the Georgia Association of Realtors expressed quite candidly that the Northlake area has not escaped the lower sales volume and industry retraction felt nationally. “Consolidation is hitting everywhere”, Johnson said, “we’ve gone from 200 to 64 agents and Atlanta is down to 600 from 1,000.” The local broker and Northlake Community Alliance Trustee said the state agents association members have decreased from 48,000 to 30,000 in the past two years. “A lot of 1 and 2-person firms will probably fold” Johnson explained.


Foreclosures Less An Issue Here
John Mangham, a Lakeside High School alumnus and foreclosure investor with the firm Epicity, said, “the stable environment and the hidden gem that is the eastern side of the northeast I-85 corridor is a very comfortable place to own a home.” Mangham, a regular guest with real estate investment television host John Adams researched the 30345 zip code, and reported, “in 2008, (there was) only one sale per month (equivalent to 6.8% of sales) from foreclosures.” The average for all DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb and Gwinnett, in 2008 was 36.1% of sales, according to Mangham.

Mangham also said that homes valued from $300,000 to $700,000 have not been hit nearly as hard by foreclosures as other value ranges. About 51% of Lakeside re-sales were above $300,000 in 2008 (79% at $250,000 or above, only 7% below $200,000).

The authorTom Doolittle, is a 15-year Northlake area resident , was a Charter Trustee for Northlake Community Alliance, Inc. (NCA), founded and facilitated the Northlake Business Forum (NBF), wrote "Norlthlake Romance" for Community Review News and contributes to GoDeKalb.com and local websites.